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The Economy. It is dieing

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Post by TheWoerus Fri Oct 24, 2008 1:28 pm

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Post by Aristotle Fri Oct 24, 2008 1:45 pm

hahaha man

the futures markets went 'limit down' last night.

basically, there are curbs (i.e., trading freezes) in the market, so it can't crash as rapidly as it did in '87. we hit them last night.

the odd thing is that you'd expect the market to open down 1000 pts this morning, and it didn't.

also, oil is now < $65. even after OPEC cut their production by 1.5M barrels this am.

miller is going to be back in vancouver sooner than he thinks, if this keeps up.
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Post by TheWoerus Fri Oct 24, 2008 1:51 pm

haha fuck. Alberta bases it's budget on a $65 barrel of oil. Got any room for me to crash man?
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Post by Pennzoil GT-R Fri Oct 24, 2008 2:58 pm

i lost so much today i havent even dared to look at the total yet. i was out of the office all day so didnt even get chance to sell off Woe

not that it would have mattered as the huge drop happened within about 10 minutes of opening and the rest of the day was steady

quite a few markets have been hitting the limit down marks lately.


Last edited by Pennzoil GT-R on Fri Oct 24, 2008 3:02 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Pennzoil GT-R Fri Oct 24, 2008 3:01 pm

todays overall loss: -10.69%

all you can do is lol

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Post by JaysonAych Fri Oct 24, 2008 5:22 pm

You can also Woe
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Post by big_jesus Fri Oct 24, 2008 5:42 pm

or :sonofscreamo:
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Post by Swerve Fri Oct 24, 2008 7:18 pm

That chart doesn't make any sense, since the world was in recession in 1992.

Also of note, I probably shouldn't have bought big yesterday. It sounds like our market's in a lot of trouble come Monday morning.

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Post by Turbofrog Fri Oct 24, 2008 7:22 pm

Swerve wrote:That chart doesn't make any sense, since the world was in recession in 1992.

Also of note, I probably shouldn't have bought big yesterday. It sounds like our market's in a lot of trouble come Monday morning.
Yeah, I got a call from my broker in early October, since I had a whole bunch of GICs that had matured from when I was a kid. I told her what I wanted her to do with it, but for some reason I forgot to say that she should hold off until the market died some more, and she put the order through that day. Woe

Probably threw away a good 30% of my dough right there. Fuuuuck.

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Post by Pennzoil GT-R Fri Oct 24, 2008 8:01 pm

Swerve wrote:That chart doesn't make any sense, since the world was in recession in 1992.

Also of note, I probably shouldn't have bought big yesterday. It sounds like our market's in a lot of trouble come Monday morning.

thats an understatement. from jpmorgan research the general consensus is we're fucked. unless you hold government backed financials that are already at their bottom then sell everything and cut your losses. i really hope theres good new this weekend otherwise sunday night im putting sell orders on everything i own

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Post by Swerve Fri Oct 24, 2008 8:17 pm

Well I'm looking more long term on yesterday's buy (BHP), which will no doubt double or triple if I hold for a few years. But obviously, if I can sell and buy again far cheaper, that's the way to go.

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Post by Turbofrog Fri Oct 24, 2008 8:25 pm

Yeah, I expect for the scope of time I'll be holding it (very long term), I'll do just fine. It's still a stupid situation, though.

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Post by Aristotle Fri Oct 24, 2008 9:45 pm

Pennzoil GT-R wrote:
Swerve wrote:That chart doesn't make any sense, since the world was in recession in 1992.

Also of note, I probably shouldn't have bought big yesterday. It sounds like our market's in a lot of trouble come Monday morning.

thats an understatement. from jpmorgan research the general consensus is we're fucked. unless you hold government backed financials that are already at their bottom then sell everything and cut your losses. i really hope theres good new this weekend otherwise sunday night im putting sell orders on everything i own

pennz, some pros i know are looking for a solid crash on mon or tues. but, to be clear, i mean they're not long or short, they're on the side expecting more fund blow-ups and margin calls.

today's opec meeting was a joke and most people expect that their production won't actually change at all, since some of the member countries do not actually heed any of the mandates.

bad stuff is going on in venezuela right now, too. predictions are that chavez will run out of money and civil unrest could break out. this also doesn't bode well for iran and russia, since they only have oil to fund anything. all these shitty 3rd world countries have financed all their debt based on high commodity prices. they are fucked. now all these assholes are freaking out and buying dollars. the GBP/USD is around 1.59 right now. i think it could drop to the 1.25 area in short order, depending on how all these carry trades are unwound.

a few people have speculated that oil could head to $35/barrel.

JPM, BAC, WFC, USB (not UBS) are all safe banks to hide in, but their stock prices could still be vulnerable near-term to fund blow-ups, because a lot of funds piled in those names.
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Post by Pennzoil GT-R Sat Oct 25, 2008 6:15 am

ive got RBS and Barclays. RBS are kind of safe now they've done their rights issue and the gov. is backing them but barclays are still independent and vulnerable....and running out of cash. i bought both realllll cheap and rbs i still think is a good buy but barclays im not so sure anymore. JPM are going to be fine...but they still lost ALOT of money yesterday. their problem for investors is theyre safe. if stocks recover who are you going to buy? the strong powerhouse that never suffered too much or the bank that was teetering on collapse and whose share price is now skyrocketing

all these fucking emerging countries have been using FX to prop up their shitty economies and now its all going to shit are having to hike interest rates....causing problems for the entire emerging market industry which in turn makes everyone else shit themselves.

i swear half the bloodbath in the UK was sparked by idiot mervyn king saying we're going into recession. he should have kept his damn mouth shut

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Post by Aristotle Sat Oct 25, 2008 7:45 pm

yeah, i'm with you there. these clowns need to keep their mouths shut some times, because they're scaring people that wouldn't be scared otherwise.

i'll tell you what, though: it's good that these emerging countries are going to hell in a basket, because that will shift the balance of the wealth back toward places like the UK and the US, since there won't be stable banking systems in these other shitholes. i hope russia and putin take a big shit all over themselves. cock suckers.
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Post by Swerve Sun Oct 26, 2008 1:35 am

Based partly on the advice here I just put my tradable employee shares on market. So long as the market opens at around Friday's closing price, I'll still get three to four times my salary contribution.

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Post by Pennzoil GT-R Sun Oct 26, 2008 7:15 am

im not looking forward to monday. theres been zero news of note to give an indication of which way things will go

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Post by Aristotle Sun Oct 26, 2008 7:50 pm

watch the azn markets tonight. the yen carry-trade is causing big problems world wide, because of the implosion in emerging market debt and their commodity-based economies.

also, look for margin calls in the us market, irrespective of anything other than a lot of funds are getting blown out.

s&p 500 has 200pts of technical trading upside as of right now. with each day that passes, that shrinks a little. however, any positive spark can launch the market up 200 in a couple of days.

also, last day of fund redemption notices is nov 15, until the new year. that's only a few weeks away, but as long as people are selling, it's going to be real choppy until then, since funds are selling even in anticipation.

in conclusion: there's zero market leadership, which means there's no real reason to buy anything other than government-backed banks, and funds piled into those already, which means there may be more selling pressure as they raise cash. however, if you don't need the money right now, you're probably getting some attractive entry points this next week for long-term holds.

of course, people have been saying that for 200 s&p points down already. oops.
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Post by Aristotle Sun Oct 26, 2008 8:54 pm

yen still rising. us markets could get a commodity rally, if the feds drop interest rates again. also, that would be a boost for banks like JPM, BAC, etc., because they'd theoretically make more $$ on loans and credit cards.
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Post by Aristotle Mon Oct 27, 2008 1:11 am

fuck. shit is fucking ugly in asia. rates are going to get dumped all over the place.

get ready for a metric fuck tonne of inflation in the coming years.

we're ass out.
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Post by VS Mon Oct 27, 2008 2:03 am

I am looking for a point to jump in now. This might be the week to do it.
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Post by Aristotle Mon Oct 27, 2008 2:50 am

yeah, if you want to die.
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Post by Pete.Z Mon Oct 27, 2008 4:10 am

As long as the dollar is doing good,you won't hear me complain.
1.25 now versus the euro,that is a lot of money I make extra every month.
I saw 1.60 only a few weeks back.
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Post by Swerve Mon Oct 27, 2008 8:18 am

Well BHP ended up and my employee shares opened 6% higher than Friday's close. So it was a reasonably good day after being setup for disappointment.

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Post by VS Mon Oct 27, 2008 11:12 am

Aristotle wrote:yeah, if you want to die.

You think long-term is a joke? I'm not going to put a lot of money in.
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Post by Pete.Z Mon Oct 27, 2008 12:35 pm

VS wrote:
Aristotle wrote:yeah, if you want to die.

You think long-term is a joke? I'm not going to put a lot of money in.

If you don't panic easy,and can afford to stay in long,you're going to make a good profit for sure.
But 3 months is not long,think years.
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Post by VS Mon Oct 27, 2008 12:44 pm

I'm thinking like 10-20 years long.
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Post by Pennzoil GT-R Mon Oct 27, 2008 7:02 pm

pretty much anything you buy will be up after 20 years. just think what people will need in 20 years.....financials are always a safe long term bet imo

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Post by Les_Vipers_rule Mon Oct 27, 2008 7:35 pm

8:50 of your time is worth it here

The few minutes you look here will help you get a quick idea of the stupidity and greed of Reaganomics by using the sub-prime crisis to in validate it all. You know your society is lost when it rewards greed and stupidity with the money of hard working avg. Joe taxpayers.

Anyone who thinks this crisis is over anytime soon is a fool. It's going to get deeper and more ghastly before it all hits the bottom. Sorry folks but greed and stupidity is a cancer we must always be willing to fight as a society.

s
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Post by Pennzoil GT-R Mon Oct 27, 2008 7:47 pm

oh fuck off les.

hard working joe tax payer? how about dumb fuck joe taxpayer who smoked pot all through school and was never smart enough to get himself ahead and instead thought he could fund the lifestyle he wanted by taking out 10,000 credit cards and car loans he could never afford? stop using everything you hear as some bullshit political soapbox

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Post by Les_Vipers_rule Mon Oct 27, 2008 8:02 pm

Pennzoil GT-R wrote:oh fuck off les.

hard working joe tax payer? how about dumb fuck joe taxpayer who smoked pot all through school and was never smart enough to get himself ahead and instead thought he could fund the lifestyle he wanted by taking out 10,000 credit cards and car loans he could never afford? stop using everything you hear as some bullshit political soapbox

WTF are you talking about? By having govt. borrow trillions that will be held on the tax payers' balance sheet as a bailout for greed and stupidity is the point. The repudiation of near 30 years Reaganomics is now becoming clear and sadly the world will suffer for it all for a number of year as we work to sort this mess out, all of it based on stupidity and greed. The immorality of letting those greed hands squander it all with them now using fear of near total collapse of the public money and personal investment wealth (aka, for retirement) for their personal greed gets them off by using taxpayers of not only the USA by almost every other developed nation carry their load of stupidity and greed is just sickening. :sonofscreamo:
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Post by Aristotle Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:52 pm

VS wrote:
Aristotle wrote:yeah, if you want to die.

You think long-term is a joke? I'm not going to put a lot of money in.

don't try to bottom-pick. the indexes could drop another 30% in a week, and it would take years and years for it to come back, if at all.

you know where the nikkei was about 25 years ago? 40,000

where is it today? 7000

after an entire generation.

if you have 1k, put $300 in blue chip stocks that pay dividends and the rest in municipal bonds.
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Post by Aristotle Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:54 pm

i should clarify that i meant to include BAC, JPM, WFC, and USB along with blue chips.

don't invest a dime until after at LEAST 11/15. frankly, i'd wait until january's fund redemption numbers come in.
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Post by Aristotle Mon Oct 27, 2008 10:55 pm

also, if stocks were really cheap right now, companies like GE would be buying everything they could get their hands on.
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Post by millertime Mon Oct 27, 2008 11:39 pm

This economy needs a cooling off period anyway. Its flat out fucking retarded now. Maybe we can get back to building some quality buildings.
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Post by Aristotle Tue Oct 28, 2008 12:20 am

hahaha if only there was money to build anything.
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Post by Les_Vipers_rule Tue Oct 28, 2008 2:49 am

millertime wrote:This economy needs a cooling off period anyway. Its flat out fucking retarded now. Maybe we can get back to building some quality buildings.

Your point is quite on the mark so to speak. Real economies that are sustainable being able to better weather the cycles of it all through a realistic tempering of the extremes in the market swings due to effective but judicial govt. regulations will be the more proper ones. These will respect the ideals and works of inventiveness, ingenuity, careful research and design of products and services to be marketed in realistic ways to a generally viable and vibrant consumer class using the ideals of labour of the mind and the body in aiding it all. This is what sustainable capitalism is about. Not the greed hand ponzi scheme we have been fed and lied to about going back to Reagan's (using Milton Friedman's flawed logic) days and only accelerated over the last decade or so.
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Post by VS Tue Oct 28, 2008 11:26 am

llllloool my birthday is 11/15. I hope i get a defenestration-inducing plunge for a present.
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Post by Aristotle Tue Oct 28, 2008 6:30 pm

nice rally today. could be another 100pts on the s&p before it's done.

today was the last day mutual funds could sell stuff to keep it from appearing on the year-end books. basically to hide their mistakes.

porsche also gang raped every faggot that was short vw. good. fuck those short pussies.
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Post by Pennzoil GT-R Tue Oct 28, 2008 7:23 pm

fuck you aris. i made on everything bar 1 stock that dropped so far i ended the day even :smelly:

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